Models
SIMMONDS MARSHALL LTD.BSE 507998Auto Components
₹295per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹295implied FY26 P/E 20.2× · EV/EBITDA 11.6×
Against CMP ₹229.70+28.4%close of 9 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹224₹435
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹101₹265
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 92 |
| PV of terminal value | 266 |
| Enterprise value | 358 |
| less net debt | (28) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 330 |
| ÷ 1.12 crore shares | ₹295 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 305 | 329 | 357 | 392 | 435 |
| 10.50% | 280 | 300 | 323 | 351 | 385 |
| 11.00% | 259 | 276 | 295 | 318 | 345 |
| 11.50% | 240 | 255 | 271 | 290 | 312 |
| 12.00% | 224 | 236 | 250 | 266 | 285 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹229.70; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 221 · 291 · 373 |
| Draws below the CMP | 14% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.10 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 186 | 192 | 208 | 238 | 273 | 312 | 357 | 409 | 469 |
| growth % | 18.1 | 3.3 | 8.1 | 14.7 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 |
| EBITDA | 12 | 19 | 25 | 31 | 35 | 41 | 46 | 53 | 61 |
| margin % | 6.2 | 9.6 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| less depreciation | (7) | (7) | (8) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (11) | (12) | (14) |
| EBIT | 5 | 11 | 17 | 24 | 27 | 31 | 36 | 41 | 47 |
| less tax on EBIT | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | |||
| NOPAT | 21 | 24 | 28 | 32 | 37 | 42 | |||
| add depreciation | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| less capex | (2) | (10) | (8) | (3) | (3) | (5) | (8) | (12) | (17) |
| less working-capital build | — | (8) | (9) | (10) | (12) | (14) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 12 | 7 | 9 | — | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 21 | 20 | 19 | 17 | 16 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 28, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 24 | 27 | 31 | 36 | 41 | 47 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 25 | 29 | 34 | 39 | 45 | |
| Profit after tax | 15 | 22 | 26 | 30 | 35 | 40 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 20 | 41 | 63 | 86 | 109 |
| Working capital | 54 | 62 | 71 | 82 | 94 | 107 |
| Net block and other assets | 114 | 109 | 105 | 103 | 103 | 105 |
| Debt | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| Equity | 58 | 81 | 107 | 137 | 172 | 212 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 23 | 26 | 30 | 35 | 40 | |
| Investing (capex) | (3) | (5) | (8) | (12) | (17) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 14.5% | 13% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹295 | 28.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.