Models
SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD.BSE 513472Industrial Products
₹185per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹185implied FY21 P/E 9.3× · EV/EBITDA 11.6×
Against CMP ₹130.65+41.6%close of 2026-09-21
Growth the CMP implies(13.1)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY2670%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹128₹299
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹87₹135
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY22–FY26 free cash flow | 67 |
| PV of terminal value | 158 |
| Enterprise value | 225 |
| less net debt | (73) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 152 |
| ÷ 0.82 crore shares | ₹185 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 194 | 213 | 236 | 264 | 299 |
| 10.50% | 173 | 189 | 208 | 231 | 259 |
| 11.00% | 156 | 169 | 185 | 204 | 226 |
| 11.50% | 141 | 152 | 165 | 181 | 199 |
| 12.00% | 128 | 137 | 149 | 162 | 177 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹130.65; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 117 · 183 · 254 |
| Draws below the CMP | 15% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.88 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.42 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.04 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 213 | 78 | 87 | 96 | 107 | 118 | 132 | 146 |
| growth % | — | (63.4) | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| EBITDA | 0 | (42) | 19 | 22 | 24 | 27 | 29 | 33 |
| margin % | 0.1 | (54.1) | 22.4 | 22.4 | 22.4 | 22.4 | 22.4 | 22.4 |
| less depreciation | (15) | (7) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) |
| EBIT | (15) | (49) | 13 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 23 |
| less tax on EBIT | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | ||
| NOPAT | 15 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 26 | ||
| add depreciation | 15 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| less capex | — | — | 0 | 0 | (2) | (5) | (8) | (12) |
| less working-capital build | — | (5) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | — | — | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 17 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 10 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 74, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 13 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 23 |
| Interest at 14.3% on debt | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | |
| Profit before tax | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | |
| Profit after tax | 7 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 14 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 7 | 13 | 18 | 22 | 26 |
| Working capital | 50 | 55 | 61 | 68 | 76 | 84 |
| Net block and other assets | 118 | 111 | 106 | 103 | 102 | 104 |
| Debt | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 |
| Equity | 45 | 50 | 57 | 66 | 77 | 90 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 6 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 15 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (2) | (5) | (8) | (12) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY21 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11% | 22.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹185 | 41.6% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.