Models
SIMPLEX INFRASTRUCTURES LSIMPLEXINFConstruction
₹-181per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(181)implied FY26 P/E (30.8)× · EV/EBITDA 2.8×
Against CMP ₹244.00−174.0%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3189%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(186)₹(170)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹137₹318
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 17 |
| PV of terminal value | 140 |
| Enterprise value | 156 |
| less net debt | (1,589) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (1,433) |
| ÷ 7.93 crore shares | ₹(181) |
89% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (180) | (178) | (176) | (173) | (170) |
| 10.50% | (182) | (180) | (179) | (177) | (174) |
| 11.00% | (183) | (182) | (181) | (179) | (177) |
| 11.50% | (185) | (184) | (182) | (181) | (179) |
| 12.00% | (186) | (185) | (184) | (183) | (181) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹244.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (187) · (181) · (173) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.91 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,874 | 1,388 | 1,076 | 1,021 | 970 | 922 | 876 | 832 | 790 |
| growth % | (8.4) | (25.9) | (22.5) | (5.1) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 19 | 28 | 37 | 56 | 53 | 51 | 48 | 46 | 43 |
| margin % | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| less depreciation | (86) | (70) | (55) | (29) | (28) | (27) | (25) | (24) | (23) |
| EBIT | (66) | (41) | (18) | 27 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 |
| less tax on EBIT | (6) | (6) | (6) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |||
| NOPAT | 21 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 16 | |||
| add depreciation | 86 | 70 | 55 | 29 | 28 | 27 | 25 | 24 | 23 |
| less capex | (4) | (10) | (31) | (57) | (54) | (47) | (40) | (33) | (27) |
| less working-capital build | — | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (436) | (93) | 177 | — | (4) | 1 | 6 | 10 | 13 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (4) | 1 | 4 | 7 | 8 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,642, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 27 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (131) | (131) | (131) | (131) | (131) | |
| Profit before tax | (106) | (107) | (109) | (110) | (111) | |
| Profit after tax | 40 | (81) | (82) | (83) | (84) | (85) |
| Dividends | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 53 | (52) | (152) | (247) | (338) | (425) |
| Working capital | 56 | 53 | 50 | 48 | 46 | 43 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,772 | 3,798 | 3,818 | 3,833 | 3,842 | 3,847 |
| Debt | 1,642 | 1,642 | 1,642 | 1,642 | 1,642 | 1,642 |
| Equity | 978 | 897 | 814 | 731 | 647 | 562 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | (50) | (53) | (55) | (58) | (60) | |
| Investing (capex) | (54) | (47) | (40) | (33) | (27) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (105) | (100) | (95) | (91) | (87) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (105) | (100) | (95) | (91) | (87) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 5.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(181) | (174.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.