Models
SINCLAIRS HOTELS LIMITEDSINCLAIRLeisure Services
₹37per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹37implied FY26 P/E 17.5× · EV/EBITDA 9.9×
Against CMP ₹74.94−51.0%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies30.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3169%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹29₹52
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹69₹100
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 58 |
| PV of terminal value | 129 |
| Enterprise value | 187 |
| less net debt | 1 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 188 |
| ÷ 5.13 crore shares | ₹37 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 38 | 40 | 43 | 47 | 52 |
| 10.50% | 35 | 37 | 40 | 43 | 46 |
| 11.00% | 33 | 35 | 37 | 39 | 42 |
| 11.50% | 31 | 32 | 34 | 36 | 39 |
| 12.00% | 29 | 31 | 32 | 34 | 36 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹74.94; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 29 · 36 · 46 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.46 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.42 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 54 | 56 | 53 | 59 | 66 | 73 | 81 | 90 | 100 |
| growth % | 77.4 | 3.9 | (4.4) | 10.9 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| EBITDA | 41 | 22 | 18 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 26 | 29 | 32 |
| margin % | 75.7 | 39.5 | 34.3 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 32.0 |
| less depreciation | (5) | (5) | (5) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) |
| EBIT | 36 | 17 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 20 |
| less tax on EBIT | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | |||
| NOPAT | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 15 | |||
| add depreciation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| less capex | (6) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (4) | (7) | (11) | (15) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 12 | 15 | 8 | — | 16 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 12 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 15 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 8 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 45.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 12 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 20 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 13 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 20 | |
| Profit after tax | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 15 |
| Dividends | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (7) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 12 | 23 | 33 | 41 | 46 |
| Working capital | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Net block and other assets | 167 | 161 | 156 | 153 | 152 | 155 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 121 | 127 | 132 | 139 | 146 | 155 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 18 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 27 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2) | (4) | (7) | (11) | (15) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |
| Net change in cash | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 16 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 12 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11% | 32% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹37 | (51.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.