Models
SIRCA PAINT INDIA LIMITEDSIRCAConsumer Durables
₹118per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹118implied FY26 P/E 9.9× · EV/EBITDA 6.5×
Against CMP ₹403.00−70.7%close of 9 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3188%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹88₹177
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹385₹539
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 75 |
| PV of terminal value | 571 |
| Enterprise value | 646 |
| less net debt | 24 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 670 |
| ÷ 5.68 crore shares | ₹118 |
88% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 122 | 132 | 144 | 159 | 177 |
| 10.50% | 112 | 120 | 130 | 142 | 156 |
| 11.00% | 103 | 110 | 118 | 128 | 139 |
| 11.50% | 95 | 101 | 108 | 116 | 126 |
| 12.00% | 88 | 94 | 99 | 106 | 114 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹403.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 24 · 116 · 185 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.78 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.57 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.18 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 268 | 312 | 374 | 492 | 640 | 832 | 1,082 | 1,407 | 1,829 |
| growth % | — | 16.4 | 20.0 | 31.7 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 62 | 69 | 67 | 99 | 129 | 167 | 217 | 283 | 368 |
| margin % | 23.0 | 22.0 | 18.0 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 |
| less depreciation | (4) | (6) | (7) | (11) | (14) | (18) | (24) | (31) | (40) |
| EBIT | 57 | 63 | 60 | 88 | 115 | 149 | 194 | 252 | 327 |
| less tax on EBIT | (22) | (29) | (38) | (49) | (64) | (83) | |||
| NOPAT | 66 | 86 | 111 | 145 | 188 | 245 | |||
| add depreciation | 4 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 24 | 31 | 40 |
| less capex | (10) | (12) | (107) | (28) | (36) | (40) | (45) | (48) | (48) |
| less working-capital build | — | (64) | (83) | (107) | (140) | (181) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (29) | 20 | (53) | — | 0 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 55 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 0 | 6 | 13 | 22 | 34 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 32, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 88 | 115 | 149 | 194 | 252 | 327 |
| Interest at 15.1% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 110 | 144 | 189 | 247 | 322 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 82 | 108 | 141 | 184 | 241 |
| Dividends | (8) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 57 | 53 | 56 | 69 | 98 | 149 |
| Working capital | 212 | 276 | 358 | 465 | 605 | 786 |
| Net block and other assets | 320 | 342 | 364 | 385 | 401 | 410 |
| Debt | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 |
| Equity | 475 | 557 | 665 | 806 | 990 | 1,231 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 33 | 43 | 57 | 76 | 100 | |
| Investing (capex) | (36) | (40) | (45) | (48) | (48) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (3) | 3 | 13 | 28 | 51 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (3) | 3 | 13 | 28 | 51 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 20.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹118 | (70.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.