Models
SMS PHARMACEUTICALS LTD.SMSPHARMAPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹43per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹43implied FY26 P/E 3.9× · EV/EBITDA 4.2×
Against CMP ₹467.45−90.7%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31102%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹20₹90
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹242₹482
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (14) |
| PV of terminal value | 740 |
| Enterprise value | 726 |
| less net debt | (319) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 407 |
| ÷ 9.37 crore shares | ₹43 |
102% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 46 | 54 | 64 | 75 | 90 |
| 10.50% | 38 | 45 | 53 | 62 | 73 |
| 11.00% | 32 | 37 | 43 | 51 | 60 |
| 11.50% | 26 | 30 | 36 | 42 | 49 |
| 12.00% | 20 | 24 | 29 | 34 | 41 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹467.45; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (1) · 43 · 83 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.46 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.27 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 522 | 709 | 783 | 887 | 1,007 | 1,142 | 1,297 | 1,472 | 1,670 |
| growth % | 0.4 | 35.9 | 10.4 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| EBITDA | 55 | 117 | 139 | 171 | 194 | 221 | 250 | 284 | 322 |
| margin % | 10.4 | 16.4 | 17.8 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 |
| less depreciation | (32) | (32) | (34) | (40) | (45) | (51) | (58) | (66) | (75) |
| EBIT | 22 | 85 | 105 | 131 | 149 | 169 | 192 | 218 | 247 |
| less tax on EBIT | (32) | (37) | (42) | (47) | (54) | (61) | |||
| NOPAT | 99 | 112 | 127 | 145 | 164 | 186 | |||
| add depreciation | 32 | 32 | 34 | 40 | 45 | 51 | 58 | 66 | 75 |
| less capex | (30) | (52) | (123) | (131) | (148) | (141) | (130) | (114) | (90) |
| less working-capital build | — | (60) | (68) | (78) | (88) | (100) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (7) | (2) | (42) | — | (51) | (31) | (5) | 29 | 71 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (48) | (26) | (4) | 20 | 45 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 365, dividends at 3.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 131 | 149 | 169 | 192 | 218 | 247 |
| Interest at 6.8% on debt | (25) | (25) | (25) | (25) | (25) | |
| Profit before tax | 124 | 144 | 167 | 193 | 222 | |
| Profit after tax | 102 | 94 | 109 | 126 | 146 | 168 |
| Dividends | (4) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 46 | (27) | (80) | (108) | (104) | (57) |
| Working capital | 447 | 507 | 575 | 653 | 741 | 842 |
| Net block and other assets | 870 | 973 | 1,063 | 1,135 | 1,182 | 1,197 |
| Debt | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 |
| Equity | 786 | 876 | 981 | 1,103 | 1,243 | 1,405 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 79 | 92 | 107 | 124 | 143 | |
| Investing (capex) | (148) | (141) | (130) | (114) | (90) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| Net change in cash | (73) | (53) | (28) | 5 | 47 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (69) | (50) | (24) | 10 | 53 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 13.5% | 19.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹43 | (90.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.