Models
SNOWMAN LOGISTICS LTD.SNOWMANTransport Services
₹5per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹5implied FY26 P/E 16.0× · EV/EBITDA 2.0×
Against CMP ₹35.20−86.4%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3117%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹4₹6
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹31₹57
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 143 |
| PV of terminal value | 30 |
| Enterprise value | 173 |
| less net debt | (93) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 80 |
| ÷ 16.71 crore shares | ₹5 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| 10.50% | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 11.00% | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 11.50% | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 12.00% | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹35.20; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (4) · 5 · 13 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.99 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.04 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 418 | 503 | 553 | 604 | 662 | 725 | 794 | 869 | 951 |
| growth % | 45.9 | 20.5 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| EBITDA | 89 | 102 | 89 | 88 | 97 | 106 | 116 | 127 | 139 |
| margin % | 21.2 | 20.2 | 16.2 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 |
| less depreciation | (52) | (59) | (63) | (68) | (74) | (81) | (89) | (97) | (107) |
| EBIT | 36 | 42 | 26 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 30 | 32 |
| less tax on EBIT | (5) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | |||
| NOPAT | 15 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 24 | |||
| add depreciation | 52 | 59 | 63 | 68 | 74 | 81 | 89 | 97 | 107 |
| less capex | (18) | (36) | (88) | (29) | (32) | (50) | (72) | (98) | (128) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 69 | 52 | (22) | — | 59 | 49 | 37 | 21 | 3 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 56 | 42 | 28 | 15 | 2 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 93, dividends at 100% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 21 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 30 | 32 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |
| Profit before tax | 15 | 17 | 20 | 22 | 25 | |
| Profit after tax | 3 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 19 |
| Dividends | (8) | (11) | (13) | (15) | (17) | (19) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 42 | 73 | 90 | 89 | 68 |
| Working capital | (31) | (31) | (31) | (31) | (31) | (31) |
| Net block and other assets | 810 | 768 | 737 | 721 | 721 | 743 |
| Debt | 93 | 93 | 93 | 93 | 93 | 93 |
| Equity | 402 | 402 | 402 | 402 | 402 | 402 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 85 | 94 | 103 | 114 | 125 | |
| Investing (capex) | (32) | (50) | (72) | (98) | (128) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (11) | (13) | (15) | (17) | (19) | |
| Net change in cash | 42 | 31 | 17 | (1) | (21) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 54 | 44 | 31 | 16 | (3) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9.5% | 14.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹5 | (86.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.