Models
SOMANY CERAMICS LIMITEDSOMANYCERAConsumer Durables
₹281per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹281implied FY26 P/E 10.8× · EV/EBITDA 5.0×
Against CMP ₹592.05−52.6%close of 2026-09-21
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3164%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹221₹400
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹332₹602
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 453 |
| PV of terminal value | 820 |
| Enterprise value | 1,274 |
| less net debt | (123) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,151 |
| ÷ 4.10 crore shares | ₹281 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 290 | 310 | 334 | 363 | 400 |
| 10.50% | 269 | 285 | 305 | 328 | 357 |
| 11.00% | 250 | 264 | 281 | 300 | 323 |
| 11.50% | 235 | 246 | 260 | 276 | 295 |
| 12.00% | 221 | 231 | 243 | 256 | 272 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹592.05; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 199 · 278 · 364 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.91 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.37 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,479 | 2,591 | 2,659 | 2,790 | 2,929 | 3,076 | 3,230 | 3,391 | 3,561 |
| growth % | 18.3 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| EBITDA | 187 | 251 | 219 | 253 | 267 | 280 | 294 | 309 | 324 |
| margin % | 7.5 | 9.7 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 |
| less depreciation | (68) | (73) | (90) | (107) | (114) | (120) | (126) | (132) | (139) |
| EBIT | 119 | 179 | 129 | 145 | 152 | 160 | 168 | 176 | 185 |
| less tax on EBIT | (46) | (48) | (51) | (53) | (56) | (59) | |||
| NOPAT | 99 | 104 | 109 | 115 | 120 | 126 | |||
| add depreciation | 68 | 73 | 90 | 107 | 114 | 120 | 126 | 132 | 139 |
| less capex | (177) | (161) | (83) | (56) | (59) | (82) | (108) | (136) | (167) |
| less working-capital build | — | (16) | (17) | (18) | (19) | (19) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (12) | 232 | 58 | — | 144 | 130 | 115 | 98 | 79 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 136 | 111 | 89 | 68 | 49 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 251, dividends at 15.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 145 | 152 | 160 | 168 | 176 | 185 |
| Interest at 17.3% on debt | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) | |
| Profit before tax | 109 | 116 | 124 | 133 | 142 | |
| Profit after tax | 81 | 74 | 79 | 85 | 91 | 97 |
| Dividends | (12) | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 128 | 231 | 319 | 392 | 447 | 481 |
| Working capital | 319 | 336 | 352 | 370 | 389 | 408 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,563 | 1,508 | 1,470 | 1,452 | 1,456 | 1,483 |
| Debt | 251 | 251 | 251 | 251 | 251 | 251 |
| Equity | 920 | 983 | 1,050 | 1,122 | 1,199 | 1,281 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 172 | 183 | 193 | 204 | 216 | |
| Investing (capex) | (59) | (82) | (108) | (136) | (167) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) | |
| Net change in cash | 103 | 88 | 72 | 55 | 35 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 114 | 100 | 85 | 68 | 49 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5% | 9.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹281 | (52.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.