SP CAPITAL FINANCING LTD. — valuation model

SP CAPITAL FINANCING LTD.BSE 530289Commercial Services & Supplies

₹481per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹481implied FY26 P/E 51.1× · EV/EBITDA 30.7×

Against CMP ₹51.54+833.4%close of 9 Oct 2026

Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs

Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹366₹712

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹48₹72

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	53
PV of terminal value	235
Enterprise value	288
less net debt	1
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	289
÷ 0.60 crore shares	₹481

82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	498	537	583	641	712
10.50%	457	489	528	573	630
11.00%	422	449	481	519	564
11.50%	392	415	442	473	510
12.00%	366	385	408	435	465

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹51.54; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	348 · 479 · 648
Draws below the CMP	0%
Rank correlation with revenue growth	+0.85
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.40
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.28

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	2	3	5	11	14	18	23	30	39
growth %	85.9	62.8	115.1	91.8	30.0	30.0	30.0	30.0	30.0
EBITDA	1	2	4	9	12	16	21	27	35
margin %	59.0	68.7	78.7	89.2	89.2	89.2	89.2	89.2	89.2
less depreciation	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
EBIT	1	2	4	9	12	16	21	27	35
less tax on EBIT				(3)	(4)	(6)	(7)	(9)	(12)
NOPAT				6	8	10	13	17	23
add depreciation	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
less capex	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
less working-capital build				—	0	0	0	0	0
Free cash flow to firm	10	1	1	—	8	10	13	17	23
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					8	9	10	12	14

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	9	12	16	21	27	35
Interest at 8% on debt		0	0	0	0	0
Profit before tax		12	16	21	27	35
Profit after tax	0	8	10	13	17	23
Dividends	(2)	0	0	0	0	0
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	1	9	19	32	50	72
Working capital	0	0	0	0	0	0
Net block and other assets	151	151	151	151	151	151
Debt	0	0	0	0	0	0
Equity	27	35	45	58	76	99
Balance check	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cash flow
From operations		8	10	13	17	23
Investing (capex)		0	0	0	0	0
Financing (dividends)		0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash		8	10	13	17	23
Free cash flow to equity		8	10	13	17	23

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	30%	89.2%	11.00%	5%	₹481	833.4%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.