Models
SPECIALITY REST LTDSPECIALITYLeisure Services
₹40per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹40implied FY26 P/E 8.1× · EV/EBITDA 2.3×
Against CMP ₹149.00−73.5%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3156%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹33₹52
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹83₹167
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 80 |
| PV of terminal value | 104 |
| Enterprise value | 185 |
| less net debt | 6 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 191 |
| ÷ 4.82 crore shares | ₹40 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 41 | 43 | 45 | 49 | 52 |
| 10.50% | 38 | 40 | 42 | 45 | 48 |
| 11.00% | 36 | 38 | 40 | 42 | 44 |
| 11.50% | 35 | 36 | 37 | 39 | 41 |
| 12.00% | 33 | 34 | 35 | 37 | 39 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹149.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 12 · 39 · 66 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.98 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.11 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.08 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 375 | 405 | 436 | 476 | 519 | 566 | 617 | 673 | 733 |
| growth % | 48.3 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| EBITDA | 85 | 70 | 73 | 80 | 87 | 95 | 103 | 112 | 122 |
| margin % | 22.6 | 17.3 | 16.6 | 16.7 | 16.7 | 16.7 | 16.7 | 16.7 | 16.7 |
| less depreciation | (32) | (42) | (49) | (56) | (61) | (67) | (73) | (79) | (87) |
| EBIT | 53 | 28 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 28 | 30 | 33 | 36 |
| less tax on EBIT | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |||
| NOPAT | 18 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 27 | |||
| add depreciation | 32 | 42 | 49 | 56 | 61 | 67 | 73 | 79 | 87 |
| less capex | (10) | (28) | (38) | (49) | (53) | (63) | (75) | (89) | (104) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 70 | 34 | 36 | — | 28 | 25 | 21 | 16 | 10 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 26 | 21 | 16 | 11 | 6 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 22.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 24 | 25 | 28 | 30 | 33 | 36 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 25 | 28 | 30 | 33 | 36 | |
| Profit after tax | 22 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 27 |
| Dividends | (5) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6 | 30 | 50 | 65 | 76 | 80 |
| Working capital | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) |
| Net block and other assets | 566 | 558 | 555 | 557 | 566 | 584 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 359 | 374 | 390 | 408 | 428 | 449 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 81 | 88 | 96 | 104 | 114 | |
| Investing (capex) | (53) | (63) | (75) | (89) | (104) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | |
| Net change in cash | 23 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 4 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 28 | 25 | 21 | 16 | 10 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9% | 16.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹40 | (73.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.