Models
SPECTRUM ELECTRIC IND LTDSPECTRUMIndustrial Manufacturing
₹22per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹22implied FY26 P/E 0.6× · EV/EBITDA 3.1×
Against CMP ₹3,022.50−99.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31238%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(83)₹236
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,050₹2,879
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (338) |
| PV of terminal value | 582 |
| Enterprise value | 244 |
| less net debt | (209) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 35 |
| ÷ 1.57 crore shares | ₹22 |
238% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 33 | 70 | 114 | 168 | 236 |
| 10.50% | (3) | 28 | 64 | 107 | 160 |
| 11.00% | (34) | (8) | 22 | 58 | 100 |
| 11.50% | (60) | (38) | (13) | 17 | 52 |
| 12.00% | (83) | (64) | (42) | (17) | 12 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,022.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (242) · 17 · 220 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.50 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.22 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 402 | 526 | 684 | 889 | 1,155 | 1,502 | 1,953 |
| growth % | — | 30.8 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 54 | 80 | 104 | 135 | 176 | 228 | 297 |
| margin % | 13.4 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 |
| less depreciation | (9) | (12) | (16) | (20) | (27) | (35) | (45) |
| EBIT | 44 | 68 | 88 | 115 | 149 | 194 | 252 |
| less tax on EBIT | (16) | (21) | (27) | (35) | (45) | (59) | |
| NOPAT | 52 | 68 | 88 | 114 | 148 | 193 | |
| add depreciation | 9 | 12 | 16 | 20 | 27 | 35 | 45 |
| less capex | (61) | (143) | (185) | (187) | (173) | (133) | (54) |
| less working-capital build | — | (45) | (58) | (76) | (98) | (128) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (88) | — | (147) | (137) | (107) | (48) | 56 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | (139) | (117) | (83) | (34) | 35 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 219, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 68 | 88 | 115 | 149 | 194 | 252 |
| Interest at 7.7% on debt | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | |
| Profit before tax | 71 | 98 | 132 | 177 | 235 | |
| Profit after tax | 44 | 55 | 75 | 101 | 136 | 180 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 11 | (149) | (299) | (419) | (481) | (438) |
| Working capital | 149 | 194 | 252 | 328 | 427 | 555 |
| Net block and other assets | 508 | 677 | 844 | 990 | 1,088 | 1,097 |
| Debt | 219 | 219 | 219 | 219 | 219 | 219 |
| Equity | 245 | 300 | 374 | 476 | 611 | 791 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 26 | 37 | 52 | 72 | 97 | |
| Investing (capex) | (185) | (187) | (173) | (133) | (54) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (160) | (150) | (120) | (61) | 43 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (160) | (150) | (120) | (61) | 43 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 15.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹22 | (99.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.