Models
SPML INFRA LIMITEDSPMLINFRAConstruction
₹117per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹117implied FY26 P/E 10.6× · EV/EBITDA 20.0×
Against CMP ₹153.10−23.7%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies17.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3187%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹79₹193
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹151₹251
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 167 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,150 |
| Enterprise value | 1,316 |
| less net debt | (283) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,033 |
| ÷ 8.85 crore shares | ₹117 |
87% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 122 | 135 | 151 | 170 | 193 |
| 10.50% | 109 | 119 | 132 | 147 | 166 |
| 11.00% | 97 | 106 | 117 | 129 | 144 |
| 11.50% | 87 | 95 | 104 | 114 | 126 |
| 12.00% | 79 | 85 | 93 | 102 | 112 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹153.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 86 · 116 · 152 |
| Draws below the CMP | 91% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.61 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.55 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.51 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 883 | 1,319 | 771 | 868 | 977 | 1,099 | 1,237 | 1,391 | 1,565 |
| growth % | (7.2) | 49.3 | (41.6) | 12.7 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| EBITDA | 29 | 15 | 43 | 66 | 74 | 84 | 94 | 106 | 119 |
| margin % | 3.3 | 1.2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 |
| less depreciation | (3) | (2) | (1) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) |
| EBIT | 26 | 13 | 42 | 64 | 71 | 80 | 90 | 102 | 114 |
| less tax on EBIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| NOPAT | 64 | 71 | 80 | 90 | 102 | 114 | |||
| add depreciation | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| less capex | (1) | (67) | (1) | (66) | (74) | (64) | (49) | (30) | (6) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 20 | 558 | (85) | — | (2) | 18 | 43 | 73 | 111 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (2) | 15 | 33 | 51 | 69 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 346, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 64 | 71 | 80 | 90 | 102 | 114 |
| Interest at 2.2% on debt | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Profit before tax | 64 | 73 | 83 | 94 | 107 | |
| Profit after tax | 75 | 64 | 73 | 83 | 94 | 107 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 64 | 54 | 65 | 100 | 165 | 269 |
| Working capital | 13 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 24 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,219 | 2,291 | 2,351 | 2,397 | 2,423 | 2,423 |
| Debt | 346 | 346 | 346 | 346 | 346 | 346 |
| Equity | 948 | 1,012 | 1,084 | 1,167 | 1,261 | 1,368 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 65 | 74 | 84 | 96 | 109 | |
| Investing (capex) | (74) | (64) | (49) | (30) | (6) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (9) | 10 | 35 | 66 | 103 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (9) | 10 | 35 | 66 | 103 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12.5% | 7.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹117 | (23.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.