₹37per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹37implied FY26 P/E 6.1× · EV/EBITDA 37.8×
Against CMP ₹6.80+449.3%close of 9 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies(11.9)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹28₹55
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹5₹27
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 798 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,523 |
| Enterprise value | 4,322 |
| less net debt | 27 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,349 |
| ÷ 116.43 crore shares | ₹37 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 39 | 42 | 45 | 50 | 55 |
| 10.50% | 35 | 38 | 41 | 44 | 49 |
| 11.00% | 33 | 35 | 37 | 40 | 44 |
| 11.50% | 30 | 32 | 34 | 37 | 40 |
| 12.00% | 28 | 30 | 32 | 34 | 36 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹6.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 27 · 37 · 51 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.39 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.35 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY21 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 0 | 151 | 407 | 1,069 | 1,390 | 1,807 | 2,349 | 3,053 | 3,970 |
| growth % | (100.0) | — | 169.4 | 162.4 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | (30) | 12 | 41 | 114 | 149 | 193 | 251 | 327 | 425 |
| margin % | — | 8.0 | 10.1 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 |
| less depreciation | (6) | (2) | (7) | (18) | (24) | (31) | (40) | (52) | (67) |
| EBIT | (36) | 10 | 35 | 96 | 125 | 163 | 211 | 275 | 357 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |||
| NOPAT | 95 | 124 | 161 | 209 | 272 | 354 | |||
| add depreciation | 6 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 24 | 31 | 40 | 52 | 67 |
| less capex | 0 | (3) | (11) | (20) | (26) | (35) | (46) | (61) | (81) |
| less working-capital build | — | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 4 | (4) | 39 | — | 121 | 156 | 202 | 262 | 339 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 115 | 134 | 156 | 182 | 212 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 96 | 125 | 163 | 211 | 275 | 357 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 125 | 163 | 211 | 275 | 357 | |
| Profit after tax | 102 | 124 | 161 | 209 | 272 | 354 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 27 | 148 | 304 | 507 | 769 | 1,108 |
| Working capital | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Net block and other assets | 314 | 317 | 321 | 327 | 337 | 350 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 332 | 456 | 617 | 826 | 1,098 | 1,452 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 147 | 191 | 249 | 323 | 420 | |
| Investing (capex) | (26) | (35) | (46) | (61) | (81) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 121 | 156 | 202 | 262 | 339 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 121 | 156 | 202 | 262 | 339 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 10.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹37 | 449.3% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.