Models
SUBROS LIMITEDSUBROSIndustrial Products
₹271per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹271implied FY26 P/E 10.6× · EV/EBITDA 5.6×
Against CMP ₹661.50−59.0%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹208₹396
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹622₹1,173
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 407 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,379 |
| Enterprise value | 1,786 |
| less net debt | (18) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,768 |
| ÷ 6.53 crore shares | ₹271 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 280 | 301 | 326 | 357 | 396 |
| 10.50% | 258 | 275 | 296 | 321 | 351 |
| 11.00% | 239 | 254 | 271 | 291 | 316 |
| 11.50% | 223 | 235 | 250 | 267 | 286 |
| 12.00% | 208 | 219 | 231 | 246 | 262 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹661.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 178 · 268 · 363 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.92 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.34 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.04 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,806 | 3,071 | 3,368 | 3,756 | 4,187 | 4,669 | 5,206 | 5,805 | 6,472 |
| growth % | 25.4 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| EBITDA | 168 | 254 | 322 | 316 | 352 | 392 | 437 | 488 | 544 |
| margin % | 6.0 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 |
| less depreciation | (110) | (117) | (128) | (125) | (138) | (154) | (172) | (192) | (214) |
| EBIT | 57 | 138 | 194 | 191 | 214 | 238 | 266 | 296 | 330 |
| less tax on EBIT | (47) | (53) | (59) | (66) | (73) | (82) | |||
| NOPAT | 144 | 161 | 179 | 200 | 223 | 248 | |||
| add depreciation | 110 | 117 | 128 | 125 | 138 | 154 | 172 | 192 | 214 |
| less capex | (132) | (120) | (118) | (150) | (167) | (186) | (207) | (230) | (256) |
| less working-capital build | — | (47) | (52) | (59) | (65) | (73) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 8 | 45 | 57 | — | 84 | 94 | 106 | 118 | 133 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 80 | 81 | 81 | 82 | 83 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 30, dividends at 10.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 191 | 214 | 238 | 266 | 296 | 330 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 211 | 236 | 263 | 294 | 328 | |
| Profit after tax | 166 | 159 | 177 | 198 | 221 | 246 |
| Dividends | (17) | (16) | (18) | (20) | (23) | (25) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 12 | 78 | 152 | 236 | 330 | 436 |
| Working capital | 408 | 456 | 508 | 567 | 632 | 705 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,714 | 1,743 | 1,775 | 1,811 | 1,850 | 1,892 |
| Debt | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Equity | 1,244 | 1,387 | 1,546 | 1,724 | 1,922 | 2,143 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 250 | 279 | 311 | 347 | 387 | |
| Investing (capex) | (167) | (186) | (207) | (230) | (256) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (16) | (18) | (20) | (23) | (25) | |
| Net change in cash | 66 | 74 | 84 | 94 | 106 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 82 | 93 | 104 | 117 | 131 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11.5% | 8.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹271 | (59.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.