Models
SUPREME INDUSTRIES LTDSUPREMEINDIndustrial Products
₹985per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹985implied FY26 P/E 12.1× · EV/EBITDA 7.6×
Against CMP ₹3,364.40−70.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹750₹1,454
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹3,140₹4,632
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,743 |
| PV of terminal value | 10,119 |
| Enterprise value | 11,862 |
| less net debt | 649 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 12,511 |
| ÷ 12.71 crore shares | ₹985 |
85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,018 | 1,097 | 1,192 | 1,309 | 1,454 |
| 10.50% | 935 | 1,001 | 1,079 | 1,173 | 1,287 |
| 11.00% | 864 | 920 | 985 | 1,061 | 1,153 |
| 11.50% | 803 | 851 | 905 | 969 | 1,044 |
| 12.00% | 750 | 791 | 837 | 891 | 953 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,364.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 771 · 976 · 1,222 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.78 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.54 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.20 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9,202 | 10,134 | 10,446 | 11,218 | 12,059 | 12,963 | 13,936 | 14,981 | 16,104 |
| growth % | 18.4 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,200 | 1,547 | 1,432 | 1,553 | 1,664 | 1,789 | 1,923 | 2,067 | 2,222 |
| margin % | 13.0 | 15.3 | 13.7 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 |
| less depreciation | (263) | (298) | (359) | (428) | (458) | (493) | (530) | (569) | (612) |
| EBIT | 936 | 1,249 | 1,073 | 1,125 | 1,206 | 1,296 | 1,394 | 1,498 | 1,610 |
| less tax on EBIT | (283) | (304) | (327) | (351) | (378) | (406) | |||
| NOPAT | 841 | 902 | 970 | 1,042 | 1,121 | 1,205 | |||
| add depreciation | 263 | 298 | 359 | 428 | 458 | 493 | 530 | 569 | 612 |
| less capex | (424) | (688) | (890) | (1,117) | (1,206) | (1,120) | (1,015) | (887) | (734) |
| less working-capital build | — | (81) | (87) | (93) | (100) | (108) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 466 | 743 | 113 | — | 74 | 255 | 464 | 703 | 974 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 70 | 218 | 358 | 488 | 609 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,125 | 1,206 | 1,296 | 1,394 | 1,498 | 1,610 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 1,206 | 1,296 | 1,394 | 1,498 | 1,610 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 902 | 970 | 1,042 | 1,121 | 1,205 |
| Dividends | (445) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 649 | 722 | 978 | 1,442 | 2,145 | 3,119 |
| Working capital | 1,079 | 1,160 | 1,246 | 1,340 | 1,440 | 1,548 |
| Net block and other assets | 6,067 | 6,815 | 7,442 | 7,927 | 8,245 | 8,367 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 6,169 | 7,071 | 8,041 | 9,083 | 10,204 | 11,408 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,279 | 1,375 | 1,479 | 1,590 | 1,709 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,206) | (1,120) | (1,015) | (887) | (734) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 74 | 255 | 464 | 703 | 974 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 74 | 255 | 464 | 703 | 974 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7.5% | 13.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹985 | (70.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.