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Model Note · SWAN DEFENCE N HEVY IND L · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
SWAN DEFENCE N HEVY IND L Discounted cash flow · base FY26
SWAN DEFENCE N HEVY IND L
Value per share, this model₹(4,960)
CMP 2026-09-10₹2,734.00
Difference(281.4)%
Growth the CMP implies45.0%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of SWAN DEFENCE N HEVY IND L, built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
30% a year
FY26 3913.4% · 5-yr CAGR 113.9%
EBITDA margin
-109.8%
FY26 (109.8)% · 5-yr average 153470.8%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
22.4% · 0%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 22.4% · 0.0%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
327.9% · 25.17%
1197 working-capital days · effective 25.2%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 0.28
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹2,541 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹2,541 cr
Shares
5.27 crore
5.27 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
282
367
477
620
806
1,048
growth %
3913.4
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
EBITDA
(310)
(403)
(524)
(681)
(885)
(1,150)
Depreciation
(63)
(82)
(107)
(139)
(181)
(235)
NOPAT
(279)
(363)
(472)
(613)
(797)
(1,036)
less capex
0
0
(32)
(83)
(162)
(282)
less working-capital build
—
(278)
(361)
(469)
(610)
(793)
Free cash flow to firm
—
(558)
(758)
(1,027)
(1,389)
(1,876)
Present value
(530)
(648)
(791)
(964)
(1,173)
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · SWAN DEFENCE N HEVY IND L · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
(4,105)
PV of the terminal value (—% of EV)
(19,482)
Enterprise value
(23,588)
less net debt
(2,541)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
(26,129)
÷ 5.27 crore shares
₹(4,960)
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
(5,115)
(5,483)
(5,925)
(6,466)
(7,141)
10.5%
(4,730)
(5,036)
(5,398)
(5,832)
(6,363)
11.0%
(4,401)
(4,659)
(4,960)
(5,315)
(5,742)
11.5%
(4,117)
(4,336)
(4,589)
(4,885)
(5,234)
12.0%
(3,868)
(4,057)
(4,273)
(4,521)
(4,811)
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
