Models
SWARAJ SUITING LIMITEDSWARAJ
₹148per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹148implied FY26 P/E 4.9× · EV/EBITDA 6.3×
Against CMP ₹365.50−59.5%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY31105%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹66₹313
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹160₹395
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (36) |
| PV of terminal value | 743 |
| Enterprise value | 707 |
| less net debt | (316) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 391 |
| ÷ 2.64 crore shares | ₹148 |
105% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 159 | 187 | 220 | 261 | 313 |
| 10.50% | 130 | 153 | 181 | 214 | 254 |
| 11.00% | 105 | 125 | 148 | 175 | 207 |
| 11.50% | 84 | 101 | 120 | 143 | 169 |
| 12.00% | 66 | 80 | 97 | 116 | 138 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹365.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (57) · 143 · 308 |
| Draws below the CMP | 96% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.22 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 417 | 577 | 750 | 975 | 1,267 | 1,647 | 2,141 |
| growth % | — | 38.5 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | — | 112 | 145 | 188 | 245 | 318 | 413 |
| margin % | — | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 |
| less depreciation | — | (23) | (29) | (38) | (49) | (64) | (84) |
| EBIT | — | 89 | 115 | 150 | 195 | 254 | 330 |
| less tax on EBIT | (20) | (25) | (33) | (43) | (56) | (73) | |
| NOPAT | 69 | 90 | 117 | 152 | 198 | 257 | |
| add depreciation | — | 23 | 29 | 38 | 49 | 64 | 84 |
| less capex | (140) | (82) | (107) | (116) | (120) | (117) | (100) |
| less working-capital build | — | (59) | (77) | (100) | (130) | (169) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (99) | — | (47) | (38) | (19) | 15 | 72 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | (45) | (32) | (14) | 11 | 45 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 327, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 89 | 115 | 150 | 195 | 254 | 330 |
| Interest at 9.3% on debt | (30) | (30) | (30) | (30) | (30) | |
| Profit before tax | 85 | 120 | 165 | 223 | 299 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 66 | 93 | 129 | 174 | 234 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 11 | (60) | (122) | (164) | (172) | (125) |
| Working capital | 197 | 256 | 333 | 433 | 563 | 732 |
| Net block and other assets | 650 | 728 | 806 | 877 | 930 | 946 |
| Debt | 327 | 327 | 327 | 327 | 327 | 327 |
| Equity | 340 | 406 | 500 | 628 | 803 | 1,036 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 36 | 54 | 78 | 108 | 148 | |
| Investing (capex) | (107) | (116) | (120) | (117) | (100) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (71) | (61) | (42) | (8) | 48 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (71) | (61) | (42) | (8) | 48 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 19.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹148 | (59.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.