TAAL TECH LTD. — valuation model

TAAL TECH LTD.TAALTECHTransport Services

₹2,444per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹2,444implied FY26 P/E 13.4× · EV/EBITDA 12.5×

Against CMP ₹5,740.00−57.4%last close

Growth the CMP implies37.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹1,918₹3,492

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	192
PV of terminal value	552
Enterprise value	743
less net debt	18
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	761
÷ 0.31 crore shares	₹2,444

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	2,521	2,698	2,909	3,168	3,492
10.50%	2,335	2,482	2,655	2,863	3,117
11.00%	2,176	2,300	2,444	2,614	2,818
11.50%	2,038	2,143	2,265	2,406	2,573
12.00%	1,918	2,008	2,111	2,230	2,369

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹5,740.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	2,062 · 2,430 · 2,888
Draws below the CMP	100%
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.68
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.64
Rank correlation with revenue growth	+0.27

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	159	187	185	197	210	224	238	254	270
growth %	23.0	17.4	(0.9)	6.6	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5
EBITDA	43	47	59	60	63	68	72	77	82
margin %	27.3	25.1	31.7	30.2	30.2	30.2	30.2	30.2	30.2
less depreciation	(5)	(6)	(6)	(4)	(4)	(4)	(5)	(5)	(5)
EBIT	38	41	53	56	59	63	67	72	76
less tax on EBIT				(13)	(14)	(15)	(16)	(17)	(18)
NOPAT				42	45	48	51	55	58
add depreciation	5	6	6	4	4	4	5	5	5
less capex	(3)	(3)	(2)	(0)	(0)	(2)	(3)	(5)	(6)
less working-capital build				—	(3)	(3)	(4)	(4)	(4)
Free cash flow to firm	19	32	39	—	46	48	50	51	53
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					44	41	38	36	33

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 35.7% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	56	59	63	67	72	76
Interest at 8% on debt		0	0	0	0	0
Profit before tax		59	63	67	72	76
Profit after tax	57	45	48	51	55	58
Dividends	(20)	(16)	(17)	(18)	(20)	(21)
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	18	48	78	110	141	174
Working capital	48	51	54	58	62	66
Net block and other assets	205	201	198	197	196	197
Debt	0	0	0	0	0	0
Equity	245	274	305	338	373	411
Balance check	0	0	0	(0)	0	0
Cash flow
From operations		46	49	53	56	60
Investing (capex)		(0)	(2)	(3)	(5)	(6)
Financing (dividends)		(16)	(17)	(18)	(20)	(21)
Net change in cash		30	31	31	32	32
Free cash flow to equity		46	48	50	51	53

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	6.5%	30.2%	11.00%	5%	₹2,444	(57.4)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.