Models
TAJ GVK HOTELS & RESORTSTAJGVKLeisure Services
₹1,508per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,508implied FY26 P/E 22.3× · EV/EBITDA 21.7×
Against CMP ₹328.35+359.3%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,162₹2,198
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹281₹450
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,174 |
| PV of terminal value | 7,318 |
| Enterprise value | 9,492 |
| less net debt | (36) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 9,456 |
| ÷ 6.27 crore shares | ₹1,508 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,559 | 1,675 | 1,814 | 1,985 | 2,198 |
| 10.50% | 1,436 | 1,533 | 1,647 | 1,784 | 1,952 |
| 11.00% | 1,332 | 1,413 | 1,508 | 1,620 | 1,755 |
| 11.50% | 1,241 | 1,311 | 1,391 | 1,484 | 1,594 |
| 12.00% | 1,162 | 1,222 | 1,290 | 1,368 | 1,460 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹328.35; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,224 · 1,502 · 1,840 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.61 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.59 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.47 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 384 | 408 | 450 | 508 | 575 | 649 | 734 | 829 | 937 |
| growth % | 68.9 | 6.4 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| EBITDA | 119 | 129 | 139 | 438 | 495 | 559 | 632 | 714 | 807 |
| margin % | 31.0 | 31.6 | 30.9 | 86.1 | 86.1 | 86.1 | 86.1 | 86.1 | 86.1 |
| less depreciation | (15) | (14) | (13) | (15) | (17) | (19) | (21) | (24) | (27) |
| EBIT | 104 | 115 | 126 | 423 | 478 | 540 | 610 | 690 | 779 |
| less tax on EBIT | (38) | (43) | (48) | (54) | (61) | (69) | |||
| NOPAT | 385 | 435 | 492 | 556 | 628 | 710 | |||
| add depreciation | 15 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 24 | 27 |
| less capex | (18) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (6) | (13) | (22) | (33) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 82 | 124 | 116 | — | 452 | 505 | 565 | 631 | 705 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 429 | 432 | 435 | 438 | 441 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 69, dividends at 3.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 423 | 478 | 540 | 610 | 690 | 779 |
| Interest at 7.1% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 473 | 535 | 606 | 685 | 775 | |
| Profit after tax | 410 | 431 | 488 | 552 | 624 | 706 |
| Dividends | (13) | (13) | (15) | (17) | (19) | (22) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 32 | 467 | 952 | 1,496 | 2,102 | 2,781 |
| Working capital | (25) | (25) | (25) | (25) | (25) | (25) |
| Net block and other assets | 1,773 | 1,756 | 1,743 | 1,734 | 1,732 | 1,737 |
| Debt | 69 | 69 | 69 | 69 | 69 | 69 |
| Equity | 1,419 | 1,837 | 2,310 | 2,844 | 3,449 | 4,132 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 448 | 506 | 573 | 648 | 733 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (6) | (13) | (22) | (33) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (13) | (15) | (17) | (19) | (22) | |
| Net change in cash | 434 | 486 | 543 | 607 | 678 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 448 | 501 | 560 | 626 | 700 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 13% | 86.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,508 | 359.3% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.