Models
TARA CHAND INFRA SOLN LTDTARACHANDCommercial Services & Supplies
₹40per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹40implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 2.6×
Against CMP ₹45.92−13.9%close of 9 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹23₹73
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹45₹104
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 42 |
| PV of terminal value | 225 |
| Enterprise value | 268 |
| less net debt | (112) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 156 |
| ÷ 3.94 crore shares | ₹40 |
84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 42 | 48 | 54 | 63 | 73 |
| 10.50% | 36 | 41 | 46 | 53 | 61 |
| 11.00% | 31 | 35 | 40 | 45 | 52 |
| 11.50% | 26 | 30 | 34 | 38 | 44 |
| 12.00% | 23 | 26 | 29 | 33 | 37 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹45.92; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (2) · 39 · 80 |
| Draws below the CMP | 58% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.97 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.20 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.05 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 285 | 308 | 332 | 359 | 388 | 419 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 103 | 112 | 121 | 130 | 141 | 152 |
| margin % | 36.3 | 36.3 | 36.3 | 36.3 | 36.3 | 36.3 |
| less depreciation | (59) | (64) | (69) | (75) | (81) | (87) |
| EBIT | 44 | 48 | 51 | 56 | 60 | 65 |
| less tax on EBIT | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) | (17) |
| NOPAT | 33 | 36 | 38 | 41 | 45 | 48 |
| add depreciation | 59 | 64 | 69 | 75 | 81 | 87 |
| less capex | (83) | (90) | (93) | (97) | (101) | (104) |
| less working-capital build | — | (7) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (9) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 3 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 22 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 14 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 138, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 44 | 48 | 51 | 56 | 60 | 65 |
| Interest at 7.5% on debt | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |
| Profit before tax | 37 | 41 | 45 | 50 | 54 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 28 | 31 | 34 | 37 | 41 |
| Dividends | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 27 | 22 | 22 | 25 | 33 | 47 |
| Working capital | 85 | 91 | 99 | 107 | 115 | 124 |
| Net block and other assets | 405 | 430 | 455 | 477 | 497 | 515 |
| Debt | 138 | 138 | 138 | 138 | 138 | 138 |
| Equity | 149 | 177 | 208 | 241 | 278 | 319 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 85 | 92 | 100 | 109 | 118 | |
| Investing (capex) | (90) | (93) | (97) | (101) | (104) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (5) | (1) | 3 | 8 | 14 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (5) | (1) | 3 | 8 | 14 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 36.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹40 | (13.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.