Models
TCC CONCEPT LIMITEDTCCRetailing
₹524per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹524implied FY26 P/E 36.0× · EV/EBITDA 25.6×
Against CMP ₹45.68+1047.1%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹408₹756
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 630 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,860 |
| Enterprise value | 2,490 |
| less net debt | 0 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,490 |
| ÷ 4.75 crore shares | ₹524 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 541 | 580 | 627 | 684 | 756 |
| 10.50% | 500 | 532 | 571 | 617 | 673 |
| 11.00% | 465 | 492 | 524 | 562 | 607 |
| 11.50% | 434 | 458 | 484 | 516 | 553 |
| 12.00% | 408 | 428 | 451 | 477 | 508 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹45.68; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 362 · 516 · 731 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.32 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 74 | 83 | 179 | 233 | 303 | 394 | 512 | 666 |
| growth % | — | 13.0 | 115.6 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 34 | 60 | 97 | 127 | 165 | 214 | 278 | 362 |
| margin % | 45.5 | 72.4 | 54.3 | 54.3 | 54.3 | 54.3 | 54.3 | 54.3 |
| less depreciation | (7) | (10) | (48) | (63) | (82) | (106) | (138) | (179) |
| EBIT | 27 | 50 | 49 | 64 | 83 | 108 | 140 | 183 |
| less tax on EBIT | 9 | 12 | 16 | 21 | 27 | 35 | ||
| NOPAT | 59 | 76 | 99 | 129 | 167 | 218 | ||
| add depreciation | 7 | 10 | 48 | 63 | 82 | 106 | 138 | 179 |
| less capex | (33) | (132) | 0 | 0 | (24) | (64) | (124) | (215) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | (39) | (109) | — | 138 | 155 | 170 | 179 | 179 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 131 | 132 | 131 | 124 | 112 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 15, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 49 | 64 | 83 | 108 | 140 | 183 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 63 | 82 | 107 | 139 | 181 | |
| Profit after tax | 63 | 75 | 98 | 127 | 166 | 216 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 16 | 152 | 306 | 474 | 651 | 829 |
| Working capital | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,088 | 2,025 | 1,968 | 1,925 | 1,912 | 1,947 |
| Debt | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Equity | 1,645 | 1,720 | 1,818 | 1,945 | 2,111 | 2,327 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 137 | 178 | 232 | 302 | 393 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (24) | (64) | (124) | (215) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 137 | 153 | 168 | 178 | 178 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 137 | 153 | 168 | 178 | 178 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 54.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹524 | 1047.1% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.