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Model Note · TCI EXPRESS LIMITED · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
TCI EXPRESS LIMITED Discounted cash flow · base FY26
TCI EXPRESS LIMITED
Value per share, this model₹199
CMP 2026-09-10₹514.80
Difference(61.4)%
Growth the CMP implies45.0%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of TCI EXPRESS LIMITED, built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
2.5% a year
FY26 2.4% · 5-yr CAGR —%
EBITDA margin
9.9%
FY26 9.9% · 5-yr average 12.7%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
2.1% · 10.1%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 2.1% · 10.1%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
12.7% · 26.2%
46 working-capital days · effective 26.2%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 1.1
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹17 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹17 cr
Shares
3.84 crore
3.84 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
1,238
1,268
1,300
1,333
1,366
1,400
growth %
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
EBITDA
123
126
129
132
135
139
Depreciation
(26)
(27)
(27)
(28)
(29)
(29)
NOPAT
72
73
75
77
79
81
less capex
(125)
(128)
(107)
(84)
(60)
(35)
less working-capital build
—
(4)
(4)
(4)
(4)
(4)
Free cash flow to firm
—
(32)
(9)
16
43
70
Present value
(31)
(7)
13
30
44
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · TCI EXPRESS LIMITED · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
48
PV of the terminal value (94% of EV)
731
Enterprise value
779
less net debt
(17)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
762
÷ 3.84 crore shares
₹199
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
206
225
248
276
310
10.5%
187
202
221
243
271
11.0%
170
183
199
217
239
11.5%
155
167
180
195
213
12.0%
143
152
163
176
191
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
