Models
THE BYKE HOSPITALITY LTDBYKELeisure Services
₹42per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹42implied FY26 P/E 32.3× · EV/EBITDA 4.9×
Against CMP ₹28.25+48.9%close of 28 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies(10.7)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3159%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹34₹58
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹26₹66
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 94 |
| PV of terminal value | 138 |
| Enterprise value | 232 |
| less net debt | (12) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 220 |
| ÷ 5.23 crore shares | ₹42 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 43 | 46 | 49 | 53 | 58 |
| 10.50% | 41 | 43 | 45 | 48 | 52 |
| 11.00% | 38 | 40 | 42 | 45 | 48 |
| 11.50% | 36 | 38 | 39 | 41 | 44 |
| 12.00% | 34 | 35 | 37 | 39 | 41 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹28.25; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 21 · 42 · 62 |
| Draws below the CMP | 20% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.97 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.19 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.05 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 114 | 84 | 97 | 107 | 118 | 130 | 144 | 159 | 176 |
| growth % | 22.6 | (26.7) | 15.2 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| EBITDA | 40 | 35 | 37 | 47 | 52 | 58 | 64 | 70 | 78 |
| margin % | 34.8 | 41.9 | 38.2 | 44.3 | 44.3 | 44.3 | 44.3 | 44.3 | 44.3 |
| less depreciation | (30) | (25) | (26) | (30) | (33) | (37) | (41) | (45) | (50) |
| EBIT | 10 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 26 | 28 |
| less tax on EBIT | (0) | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |||
| NOPAT | 17 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 28 | |||
| add depreciation | 30 | 25 | 26 | 30 | 33 | 37 | 41 | 45 | 50 |
| less capex | (42) | (8) | (13) | (16) | (18) | (26) | (35) | (46) | (59) |
| less working-capital build | — | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 19 | 13 | (4) | — | 31 | 28 | 24 | 19 | 13 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 29 | 24 | 19 | 14 | 8 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 15, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 17 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 26 | 28 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 18 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 27 | |
| Profit after tax | 7 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 24 | 26 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 4 | 34 | 61 | 84 | 102 | 114 |
| Working capital | 29 | 32 | 35 | 39 | 43 | 47 |
| Net block and other assets | 311 | 296 | 285 | 280 | 281 | 291 |
| Debt | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Equity | 231 | 249 | 268 | 290 | 313 | 340 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 48 | 53 | 58 | 65 | 72 | |
| Investing (capex) | (18) | (26) | (35) | (46) | (59) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 30 | 27 | 23 | 18 | 12 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 30 | 27 | 23 | 18 | 12 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 10.5% | 44.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹42 | 48.9% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.