Models
THE RUBY MILLS LTDRUBYMILLS
₹12per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹12implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 5.4×
Against CMP ₹458.90−97.4%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31114%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(28)₹93
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹169₹499
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (58) |
| PV of terminal value | 462 |
| Enterprise value | 403 |
| less net debt | (364) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 39 |
| ÷ 3.34 crore shares | ₹12 |
114% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 17 | 31 | 47 | 67 | 93 |
| 10.50% | 3 | 14 | 28 | 44 | 64 |
| 11.00% | (9) | 1 | 12 | 25 | 41 |
| 11.50% | (19) | (11) | (2) | 9 | 22 |
| 12.00% | (28) | (21) | (13) | (4) | 7 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹458.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (30) · 11 · 56 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.06 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 359 | 387 | 418 | 452 | 488 | 527 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 75 | 81 | 88 | 95 | 102 | 111 |
| margin % | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 |
| less depreciation | (24) | (26) | (28) | (31) | (33) | (36) |
| EBIT | 51 | 55 | 59 | 64 | 69 | 75 |
| less tax on EBIT | (9) | (10) | (11) | (11) | (12) | (13) |
| NOPAT | 42 | 45 | 49 | 53 | 57 | 62 |
| add depreciation | 24 | 26 | 28 | 31 | 33 | 36 |
| less capex | (112) | (120) | (106) | (89) | (68) | (43) |
| less working-capital build | — | (7) | (8) | (8) | (9) | (10) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (56) | (37) | (14) | 13 | 44 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | (53) | (31) | (11) | 9 | 28 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 373, dividends at 13.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 51 | 55 | 59 | 64 | 69 | 75 |
| Interest at 4.1% on debt | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | |
| Profit before tax | 40 | 44 | 49 | 54 | 60 | |
| Profit after tax | 44 | 33 | 36 | 40 | 44 | 49 |
| Dividends | (6) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (7) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 9 | (64) | (118) | (150) | (155) | (130) |
| Working capital | 91 | 98 | 106 | 114 | 123 | 133 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,117 | 1,211 | 1,289 | 1,347 | 1,381 | 1,389 |
| Debt | 373 | 373 | 373 | 373 | 373 | 373 |
| Equity | 674 | 703 | 734 | 769 | 807 | 850 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 52 | 57 | 62 | 68 | 75 | |
| Investing (capex) | (120) | (106) | (89) | (68) | (43) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |
| Net change in cash | (73) | (54) | (32) | (5) | 25 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (69) | (49) | (26) | 1 | 32 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 21% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹12 | (97.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.