Models
The Southern Gas LimitedBSE 509910Chemicals & Petrochemicals
₹11,037per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹11,037implied FY26 P/E 8.8× · EV/EBITDA 6.0×
Against CMP ₹25.00+44049.0%close of 2025-08-17
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹8,777₹15,539
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 7 |
| PV of terminal value | 17 |
| Enterprise value | 24 |
| less net debt | 1 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 25 |
| ÷ 0.00 crore shares | ₹11,037 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 11,375 | 12,132 | 13,041 | 14,151 | 15,539 |
| 10.50% | 10,575 | 11,204 | 11,948 | 12,840 | 13,930 |
| 11.00% | 9,890 | 10,419 | 11,037 | 11,767 | 12,643 |
| 11.50% | 9,296 | 9,747 | 10,267 | 10,874 | 11,591 |
| 12.00% | 8,777 | 9,164 | 9,607 | 10,118 | 10,714 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹25.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 8,659 · 10,991 · 13,565 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 36 | 36 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 43 |
| growth % | (13.7) | (0.9) | 0.3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| EBITDA | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| margin % | 6.0 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| EBIT | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |||
| NOPAT | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| add depreciation | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| less capex | (2) | (2) | (3) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| less working-capital build | — | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (0) | (0) | (0) | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 4.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Profit after tax | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Dividends | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 |
| Working capital | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Net block and other assets | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 27 | 29 | 31 | 33 | 35 | 37 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Net change in cash | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3% | 11.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹11,037 | 44049.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.