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Model Note · THE UGAR SUGAR WORKS LTD · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
THE UGAR SUGAR WORKS LTD Discounted cash flow · base FY23
THE UGAR SUGAR WORKS LTD
Value per share, this model₹113
CMP 2026-09-10₹54.20
Difference108.1%
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of THE UGAR SUGAR WORKS LTD, built on its filed FY23 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
30% a year
FY23 49.1% · 5-yr CAGR —%
EBITDA margin
10.7%
FY23 10.7% · 5-yr average 6.7%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
0.9% · 3.1%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY23 0.9% · 3.1%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
20.4% · 30.6%
75 working-capital days · effective 30.6%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 0.39
After FY28
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹341 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY23 net debt ₹341 cr
Shares
11.25 crore
11.25 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY23
FY24
FY25
FY26
FY27
FY28
Revenue
1,940
2,522
3,279
4,263
5,541
7,204
growth %
49.1
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
EBITDA
208
270
351
456
593
771
Depreciation
(18)
(23)
(30)
(38)
(50)
(65)
NOPAT
132
172
223
290
377
490
less capex
(59)
(78)
(85)
(89)
(88)
(78)
less working-capital build
—
(119)
(154)
(201)
(261)
(339)
Free cash flow to firm
—
(3)
13
39
78
138
Present value
(3)
11
30
54
86
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · THE UGAR SUGAR WORKS LTD · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
179
PV of the terminal value (89% of EV)
1,432
Enterprise value
1,610
less net debt
(341)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
1,269
÷ 11.25 crore shares
₹113
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
118
131
146
164
188
10.5%
105
115
128
143
161
11.0%
94
102
113
125
140
11.5%
84
91
100
110
122
12.0%
75
82
89
98
108
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
