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Model Note · TIMKEN INDIA LTD. · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
TIMKEN INDIA LTD. Discounted cash flow · base FY26
TIMKEN INDIA LTD.
Value per share, this model₹789
CMP 2026-09-10₹3,302.20
Difference(76.1)%
Growth the CMP implies45.0%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of TIMKEN INDIA LTD., built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
8% a year
FY26 —% · 5-yr CAGR —%
EBITDA margin
18.2%
FY26 18.2% · 5-yr average 18.2%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
3% · 8.5%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 3.0% · 8.5%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
28.4% · 24.9%
104 working-capital days · effective 24.9%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 0.69
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹(268) · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹(268) cr
Shares
7.52 crore
7.52 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
3,478
3,756
4,057
4,381
4,732
5,110
growth %
—
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
EBITDA
632
684
738
797
861
930
Depreciation
(106)
(113)
(122)
(131)
(142)
(153)
NOPAT
395
429
463
500
540
583
less capex
(297)
(319)
(295)
(265)
(228)
(184)
less working-capital build
—
(79)
(85)
(92)
(100)
(108)
Free cash flow to firm
—
143
204
274
354
445
Present value
136
175
211
246
278
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · TIMKEN INDIA LTD. · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
1,046
PV of the terminal value (82% of EV)
4,623
Enterprise value
5,670
less net debt
268
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
5,938
÷ 7.52 crore shares
₹789
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
815
877
950
1,040
1,152
10.5%
751
802
862
935
1,023
11.0%
697
739
789
848
919
11.5%
649
686
728
777
835
12.0%
608
639
675
716
765
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
