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Model Note · TITAGARH RAIL SYSTEMS LTD · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
TITAGARH RAIL SYSTEMS LTD Discounted cash flow · base FY26
TITAGARH RAIL SYSTEMS LTD
Value per share, this model₹143
CMP 2026-09-10₹842.80
Difference(83.1)%
Growth the CMP implies45.0%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of TITAGARH RAIL SYSTEMS LTD, built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
-5% a year
FY26 (17.6)% · 5-yr CAGR 15.9%
EBITDA margin
8.9%
FY26 8.9% · 5-yr average 9.5%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
1.6% · 0.2%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 1.6% · 0.2%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
27.9% · 33.9%
102 working-capital days · effective 33.9%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 1.5
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹360 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹360 cr
Shares
13.47 crore
13.47 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
3,186
3,027
2,875
2,731
2,595
2,465
growth %
(17.6)
(5.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
EBITDA
283
269
256
243
231
219
Depreciation
(51)
(48)
(46)
(44)
(42)
(39)
NOPAT
153
146
139
132
125
119
less capex
(7)
(6)
(18)
(29)
(39)
(47)
less working-capital build
—
44
42
40
38
36
Free cash flow to firm
—
233
209
187
166
147
Present value
221
179
144
115
92
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · TITAGARH RAIL SYSTEMS LTD · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
751
PV of the terminal value (67% of EV)
1,529
Enterprise value
2,280
less net debt
(360)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
1,920
÷ 13.47 crore shares
₹143
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
148
159
173
189
210
10.5%
136
145
156
170
186
11.0%
125
133
143
154
167
11.5%
117
123
131
140
151
12.0%
109
114
121
129
138
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
