Models
TRANSINDIA REAL ESTATE LTRELTransport Services
₹7per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹7implied FY26 P/E 4.1× · EV/EBITDA 3.7×
Against CMP ₹26.80−74.2%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies29.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31125%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹4₹12
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹21₹34
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (43) |
| PV of terminal value | 212 |
| Enterprise value | 169 |
| less net debt | 1 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 170 |
| ÷ 24.57 crore shares | ₹7 |
125% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 |
| 10.50% | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 11.00% | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| 11.50% | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 12.00% | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹26.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 4 · 7 · 10 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.04 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 97 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 88 | 89 | 90 |
| growth % | — | (14.7) | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| EBITDA | 336 | 68 | 46 | 47 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 |
| margin % | 346.7 | 82.9 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 |
| less depreciation | (16) | (17) | (17) | (18) | (18) | (18) | (19) | (19) |
| EBIT | 319 | 52 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 31 |
| less tax on EBIT | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (7) | ||
| NOPAT | 23 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 24 | ||
| add depreciation | 16 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
| less capex | (0) | (181) | (75) | (76) | (64) | (50) | (37) | (23) |
| less working-capital build | — | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 75 | (96) | — | (36) | (22) | (9) | 6 | 20 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | (34) | (19) | (7) | 4 | 13 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 29 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 31 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 29 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 31 | |
| Profit after tax | 37 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | (34) | (57) | (65) | (60) | (39) |
| Working capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,370 | 1,429 | 1,475 | 1,507 | 1,525 | 1,528 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,279 | 1,302 | 1,325 | 1,349 | 1,372 | 1,397 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 41 | 41 | 42 | 42 | 43 | |
| Investing (capex) | (76) | (64) | (50) | (37) | (23) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (36) | (22) | (9) | 6 | 20 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (36) | (22) | (9) | 6 | 20 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 1.5% | 55% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹7 | (74.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.