Models
TRANSVOY LOGISTICS INDIA LIMITBSE 543754Transport Services
₹283per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹283implied FY26 P/E 14.4× · EV/EBITDA 20.3×
Against CMP ₹86.50+226.6%close of 6 Nov 2026
Growth the CMP implies11.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31161%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹159₹533
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹80₹167
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (44) |
| PV of terminal value | 115 |
| Enterprise value | 71 |
| less net debt | 4 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 75 |
| ÷ 0.27 crore shares | ₹283 |
161% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 297 | 340 | 391 | 454 | 533 |
| 10.50% | 254 | 290 | 332 | 382 | 444 |
| 11.00% | 217 | 247 | 283 | 324 | 374 |
| 11.50% | 186 | 212 | 241 | 276 | 316 |
| 12.00% | 159 | 181 | 206 | 235 | 269 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹86.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 164 · 279 · 437 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.78 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.35 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 28 | 35 | 65 | 84 | 110 | 142 | 185 | 241 |
| growth % | — | 25.0 | 83.2 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 13 |
| margin % | 2.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
| less depreciation | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| EBIT | — | — | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 13 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | ||
| NOPAT | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | ||
| add depreciation | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| less capex | — | (4) | (19) | (25) | (24) | (21) | (14) | 0 |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (4) | — | (21) | (19) | (14) | (5) | 11 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | (20) | (16) | (11) | (4) | 7 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 13 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 13 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 4 | (17) | (36) | (50) | (55) | (44) |
| Working capital | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net block and other assets | 47 | 72 | 96 | 117 | 130 | 130 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 0 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 24 | 35 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | |
| Investing (capex) | (25) | (24) | (21) | (14) | 0 | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (21) | (19) | (14) | (5) | 11 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (21) | (19) | (14) | (5) | 11 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 5.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹283 | 226.6% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.