Models
Umiya Tubes LimitedBSE 539798Industrial Products
₹47per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹47implied FY26 P/E 12.0× · EV/EBITDA 23.2×
Against CMP ₹23.49+98.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(8.4)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹35₹69
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹20₹45
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 11 |
| PV of terminal value | 49 |
| Enterprise value | 60 |
| less net debt | 0 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 60 |
| ÷ 1.29 crore shares | ₹47 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 48 | 52 | 56 | 62 | 69 |
| 10.50% | 44 | 47 | 51 | 55 | 61 |
| 11.00% | 41 | 43 | 47 | 50 | 55 |
| 11.50% | 38 | 40 | 43 | 46 | 49 |
| 12.00% | 35 | 37 | 39 | 42 | 45 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹23.49; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 35 · 45 · 59 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.24 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 17 | 22 | 28 | 36 | 47 |
| growth % | (66.0) | (92.6) | 6.2 | 2154.5 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | (3) | (3) | (3) | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| margin % | (43.4) | (519.5) | (547.0) | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.3 |
| less depreciation | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| EBIT | (3) | (3) | (3) | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| less tax on EBIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| NOPAT | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 | |||
| add depreciation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| less capex | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| less working-capital build | — | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (6) | 0 | 4 | — | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 | |
| Profit after tax | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 15 |
| Working capital | 6 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 21 |
| Net block and other assets | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 26 | 29 | 34 | 39 | 47 | 56 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 20.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹47 | 98.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.