Models
UNITED NILGIRI TEA LTDUNITEDTEAAgricultural Food & other Products
₹323per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹323implied FY26 P/E 7.9× · EV/EBITDA 7.9×
Against CMP ₹405.10−20.4%close of 28 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies1.4%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹257₹453
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹382₹590
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 47 |
| PV of terminal value | 110 |
| Enterprise value | 157 |
| less net debt | 4 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 161 |
| ÷ 0.50 crore shares | ₹323 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 332 | 354 | 381 | 413 | 453 |
| 10.50% | 309 | 327 | 349 | 375 | 406 |
| 11.00% | 289 | 305 | 323 | 344 | 369 |
| 11.50% | 272 | 285 | 300 | 318 | 339 |
| 12.00% | 257 | 268 | 281 | 296 | 313 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹405.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 275 · 323 · 381 |
| Draws below the CMP | 96% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.68 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 84 | 84 | 90 | 83 | 79 | 75 | 71 | 68 | 64 |
| growth % | 10.6 | 0.4 | 6.9 | (7.2) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 14 | 16 | 15 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 |
| margin % | 16.4 | 19.6 | 17.1 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 23.8 |
| less depreciation | (4) | (4) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) |
| EBIT | 10 | 13 | 12 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 |
| less tax on EBIT | (3) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |||
| NOPAT | 14 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | |||
| add depreciation | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| less capex | (448) | (2) | (4) | (4) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) |
| less working-capital build | — | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,058 | 6 | 18 | — | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 13 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 6.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 16 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | |
| Profit after tax | 22 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| Dividends | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 4 | 17 | 29 | 40 | 51 | 61 |
| Working capital | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| Net block and other assets | 241 | 241 | 241 | 242 | 242 | 242 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 241 | 254 | 265 | 276 | 287 | 297 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 17 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 14 | |
| Investing (capex) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Net change in cash | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 23.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹323 | (20.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.