UNIVASTU INDIA LIMITED — valuation model

UNIVASTU INDIA LIMITEDUNIVASTUConstruction

₹370per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹370implied FY26 P/E 33.6× · EV/EBITDA 32.1×

Against CMP ₹130.00+184.2%close of 8 Oct 2026

Growth the CMP implies1.7%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹284₹540

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹56₹179

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	242
PV of terminal value	1,040
Enterprise value	1,282
less net debt	48
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	1,330
÷ 3.60 crore shares	₹370

81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	382	411	445	487	540
10.50%	352	376	404	438	479
11.00%	326	346	370	397	431
11.50%	304	321	341	364	391
12.00%	284	299	316	335	358

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹130.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	271 · 367 · 494
Draws below the CMP	0%
Rank correlation with revenue growth	+0.84
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.40
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.30

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY22	FY23	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	59	87	171	243	316	411	535	695	904
growth %	—	48.0	96.9	42.2	30.0	30.0	30.0	30.0	30.0
EBITDA	12	15	28	40	52	67	88	114	148
margin %	21.2	16.8	16.5	16.4	16.4	16.4	16.4	16.4	16.4
less depreciation	(1)	(1)	(1)	(2)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
EBIT	12	14	27	38	50	65	84	109	142
less tax on EBIT				(11)	(14)	(18)	(24)	(31)	(40)
NOPAT				27	36	46	60	78	101
add depreciation	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	6
less capex	(0)	(0)	(6)	0	0	(1)	(2)	(4)	(8)
less working-capital build				—	0	0	0	0	0
Free cash flow to firm	12	7	(11)	—	38	48	62	79	100
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					36	41	47	54	63

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 33, dividends at 0% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	38	50	65	84	109	142
Interest at 11.8% on debt		(4)	(4)	(4)	(4)	(4)
Profit before tax		46	61	80	105	138
Profit after tax	26	33	43	57	75	99
Dividends	0	0	0	0	0	0
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	81	116	161	220	295	393
Working capital	(150)	(150)	(150)	(150)	(150)	(150)
Net block and other assets	399	397	395	393	393	394
Debt	33	33	33	33	33	33
Equity	112	145	188	245	320	419
Balance check	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cash flow
From operations		35	46	61	80	105
Investing (capex)		0	(1)	(2)	(4)	(8)
Financing (dividends)		0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash		35	45	59	76	97
Free cash flow to equity		35	45	59	76	97

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	30%	16.4%	11.00%	5%	₹370	184.2%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.