Models
UNIVERSAL STARCH-CHEM ALLIED LBSE 524408Agricultural Food & other Products
₹463per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹463implied FY26 P/E 14.8× · EV/EBITDA 7.7×
Against CMP ₹200.00+131.3%close of 28 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3168%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹342₹702
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹110₹220
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 79 |
| PV of terminal value | 169 |
| Enterprise value | 248 |
| less net debt | (54) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 194 |
| ÷ 0.42 crore shares | ₹463 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 481 | 521 | 569 | 628 | 702 |
| 10.50% | 438 | 472 | 511 | 559 | 616 |
| 11.00% | 402 | 430 | 463 | 501 | 548 |
| 11.50% | 370 | 394 | 422 | 454 | 492 |
| 12.00% | 342 | 363 | 386 | 413 | 445 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹200.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 370 · 463 · 574 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 516 | 527 | 491 | 489 | 486 | 484 | 481 | 479 | 477 |
| growth % | 13.1 | 2.2 | (6.9) | (0.5) | (0.5) | (0.5) | (0.5) | (0.5) | (0.5) |
| EBITDA | 17 | 20 | 18 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 31 |
| margin % | 3.4 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 |
| less depreciation | (5) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) |
| EBIT | 12 | 14 | 12 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 24 |
| less tax on EBIT | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |||
| NOPAT | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | |||
| add depreciation | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| less capex | 0 | (9) | (19) | (2) | (2) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (1) | 10 | 4 | — | 23 | 22 | 20 | 18 | 16 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 22 | 19 | 15 | 13 | 10 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 54, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 24 |
| Interest at 13.7% on debt | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |
| Profit before tax | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | |
| Profit after tax | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 18 | 35 | 49 | 62 | 73 |
| Working capital | 46 | 46 | 46 | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| Net block and other assets | 168 | 163 | 159 | 157 | 157 | 158 |
| Debt | 54 | 54 | 54 | 54 | 54 | 54 |
| Equity | 83 | 95 | 108 | 120 | 132 | 145 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 18 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 11 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 18 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 11 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -0.5% | 6.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹463 | 131.3% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.