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Model Note · UPL LIMITED · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
UPL LIMITED Discounted cash flow · base FY26
UPL LIMITED
Value per share, this model₹385
CMP 2026-09-10₹572.95
Difference(32.7)%
Growth the CMP implies45.0%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of UPL LIMITED, built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
11% a year
FY26 11.2% · 5-yr CAGR 6.0%
EBITDA margin
18%
FY26 18.0% · 5-yr average 16.4%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
6.3% · 3.2%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 6.3% · 3.2%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
35.8% · 28%
131 working-capital days · effective 28.0%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 1.35
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹16,071 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹16,071 cr
Shares
84.50 crore
84.50 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
51,839
57,541
63,871
70,897
78,695
87,352
growth %
11.2
11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0
EBITDA
9,333
10,357
11,497
12,761
14,165
15,723
Depreciation
(3,244)
(3,625)
(4,024)
(4,466)
(4,958)
(5,503)
NOPAT
4,384
4,847
5,380
5,972
6,629
7,359
less capex
(1,666)
(1,841)
(2,740)
(3,814)
(5,092)
(6,604)
less working-capital build
—
(2,041)
(2,266)
(2,515)
(2,792)
(3,099)
Free cash flow to firm
—
4,590
4,398
4,109
3,704
3,159
Present value
4,356
3,761
3,166
2,570
1,975
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · UPL LIMITED · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
15,828
PV of the terminal value (67% of EV)
32,806
Enterprise value
48,634
less net debt
(16,071)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
32,563
÷ 84.50 crore shares
₹385
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
403
442
488
545
616
10.5%
362
394
432
478
533
11.0%
327
354
385
423
467
11.5%
296
319
346
377
413
12.0%
269
289
312
338
368
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
