UPSURGE SEEDS OF AGRI LTD — valuation model

UPSURGE SEEDS OF AGRI LTDUSASEEDS

₹136per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹136implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 13.5×

Against CMP ₹89.55+52.2%close of 19 Oct 2026

Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs

Value after FY3169%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹97₹214

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹77₹188

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	58
PV of terminal value	132
Enterprise value	190
less net debt	(53)
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	137
÷ 1.01 crore shares	₹136

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	142	155	171	190	214
10.50%	128	139	152	167	186
11.00%	117	126	136	149	164
11.50%	106	114	123	133	146
12.00%	97	104	112	120	131

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹89.55; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	113 · 137 · 166
Draws below the CMP	0%
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.82
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.55
Rank correlation with revenue growth	−0.03

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	137	110	105	100	95	90	85
growth %	—	(19.3)	(5.0)	(5.0)	(5.0)	(5.0)	(5.0)
EBITDA	—	14	13	13	12	12	11
margin %	—	12.8	12.8	12.8	12.8	12.8	12.8
less depreciation	—	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)
EBIT	—	12	12	11	10	10	9
less tax on EBIT		(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)
NOPAT		11	11	10	10	9	9
add depreciation	—	2	2	2	2	2	2
less capex	(2)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(2)	(2)
less working-capital build		—	5	5	5	4	4
Free cash flow to firm	(3)	—	17	16	15	14	13
Discount factor			0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value			16	14	11	9	8

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 54, dividends at 0% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	12	12	11	10	10	9
Interest at 8.3% on debt		(4)	(4)	(4)	(4)	(4)
Profit before tax		7	7	6	5	5
Profit after tax	7	7	6	6	5	5
Dividends	0	0	0	0	0	0
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	0	13	25	35	45	53
Working capital	102	96	92	87	83	79
Net block and other assets	18	17	16	16	16	16
Debt	54	54	54	54	54	54
Equity	62	69	75	80	86	90
Balance check	0	0	(0)	0	0	0
Cash flow
From operations		14	13	12	11	10
Investing (capex)		(1)	(1)	(1)	(2)	(2)
Financing (dividends)		0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash		13	12	11	9	8
Free cash flow to equity		13	12	11	9	8

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	-5%	12.8%	11.00%	5%	₹136	52.2%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.