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Model Note · UPSURGE SEEDS OF AGRI LTD · 29 October 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
UPSURGE SEEDS OF AGRI LTD Discounted cash flow · base FY26
UPSURGE SEEDS OF AGRI LTD
Value per share, this model₹136
CMP, 19 Oct 2026₹89.55
Difference52.2%
Growth the CMP implies—
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of UPSURGE SEEDS OF AGRI LTD, built on its filed FY26 standalone statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
-5% a year
FY26 (19.3)% · 5-yr CAGR —%
EBITDA margin
12.8%
FY26 12.8% · 5-yr average 12.8%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
1.8% · 0.8%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 1.8% · 0.8%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
91.9% · 5.5%
336 working-capital days · effective 5.5%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 0.43
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹53 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹53 cr
Shares
1.01 crore
1.01 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
110
105
100
95
90
85
growth %
(19.3)
(5.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
EBITDA
14
13
13
12
12
11
Depreciation
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
NOPAT
11
11
10
10
9
9
less capex
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(2)
(2)
less working-capital build
—
5
5
5
4
4
Free cash flow to firm
—
17
16
15
14
13
Present value
16
14
11
9
8
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · UPSURGE SEEDS OF AGRI LTD · 29 October 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
58
PV of the terminal value (69% of EV)
132
Enterprise value
190
less net debt
(53)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
137
÷ 1.01 crore shares
₹136
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
142
155
171
190
214
10.5%
128
139
152
167
186
11.0%
117
126
136
149
164
11.5%
106
114
123
133
146
12.0%
97
104
112
120
131
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
