Models
VA TECH WABAG LTDWABAGOther Utilities
₹802per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹802implied FY26 P/E 10.4× · EV/EBITDA 9.4×
Against CMP ₹2,282.00−64.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹635₹1,134
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,033₹2,254
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 935 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,518 |
| Enterprise value | 4,453 |
| less net debt | 557 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,010 |
| ÷ 6.25 crore shares | ₹802 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 826 | 882 | 949 | 1,031 | 1,134 |
| 10.50% | 767 | 814 | 869 | 935 | 1,015 |
| 11.00% | 717 | 756 | 802 | 856 | 921 |
| 11.50% | 673 | 707 | 745 | 790 | 843 |
| 12.00% | 635 | 664 | 697 | 734 | 779 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,282.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 560 · 791 · 1,012 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.81 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.41 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.37 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,960 | 2,856 | 3,294 | 3,944 | 4,713 | 5,632 | 6,731 | 8,043 | 9,612 |
| growth % | (0.6) | (3.5) | 15.3 | 19.7 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 |
| EBITDA | 29 | 366 | 424 | 473 | 566 | 676 | 808 | 965 | 1,153 |
| margin % | 1.0 | 12.8 | 12.9 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| less depreciation | (9) | (8) | (6) | (6) | (9) | (11) | (13) | (16) | (19) |
| EBIT | 20 | 358 | 419 | 467 | 556 | 665 | 794 | 949 | 1,134 |
| less tax on EBIT | (113) | (135) | (162) | (193) | (231) | (276) | |||
| NOPAT | 353 | 421 | 503 | 601 | 718 | 859 | |||
| add depreciation | 9 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 19 |
| less capex | (5) | (12) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (8) | (11) | (16) | (23) |
| less working-capital build | — | (253) | (302) | (361) | (432) | (516) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 127 | 122 | 351 | — | 173 | 204 | 242 | 286 | 339 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 164 | 175 | 186 | 199 | 212 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 228, dividends at 5.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 467 | 556 | 665 | 794 | 949 | 1,134 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (18) | (18) | (18) | (18) | (18) | |
| Profit before tax | 538 | 646 | 776 | 931 | 1,116 | |
| Profit after tax | 437 | 407 | 489 | 587 | 705 | 845 |
| Dividends | (25) | (23) | (28) | (33) | (40) | (48) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 785 | 921 | 1,083 | 1,278 | 1,510 | 1,787 |
| Working capital | 1,297 | 1,550 | 1,852 | 2,213 | 2,645 | 3,161 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,041 | 4,036 | 4,032 | 4,030 | 4,031 | 4,034 |
| Debt | 228 | 228 | 228 | 228 | 228 | 228 |
| Equity | 2,574 | 2,958 | 3,419 | 3,973 | 4,637 | 5,434 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 164 | 198 | 240 | 289 | 348 | |
| Investing (capex) | (5) | (8) | (11) | (16) | (23) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (23) | (28) | (33) | (40) | (48) | |
| Net change in cash | 136 | 163 | 195 | 232 | 277 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 159 | 191 | 228 | 272 | 325 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 19.5% | 12% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹802 | (64.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.