Models
VASCON ENGINEERS LTDVASCONEQ
₹16per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹16implied FY26 P/E 12.4× · EV/EBITDA 11.4×
Against CMP ₹30.39−49.0%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹10₹26
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹27₹75
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 183 |
| PV of terminal value | 420 |
| Enterprise value | 602 |
| less net debt | (243) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 359 |
| ÷ 23.17 crore shares | ₹16 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 16 | 18 | 20 | 23 | 26 |
| 10.50% | 14 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 22 |
| 11.00% | 13 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 19 |
| 11.50% | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 17 |
| 12.00% | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 15 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹30.39; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 12 · 16 · 20 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.83 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.53 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,000 | 1,037 | 1,078 | 949 | 902 | 857 | 814 | 773 | 735 |
| growth % | 53.1 | 3.7 | 3.9 | (11.9) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 98 | 70 | 162 | 53 | 51 | 48 | 46 | 43 | 41 |
| margin % | 9.8 | 6.7 | 15.0 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| less depreciation | (12) | (14) | (6) | (6) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (4) |
| EBIT | 86 | 55 | 156 | 47 | 45 | 43 | 41 | 39 | 37 |
| less tax on EBIT | (12) | (11) | (11) | (10) | (10) | (9) | |||
| NOPAT | 35 | 34 | 32 | 31 | 29 | 28 | |||
| add depreciation | 12 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| less capex | (42) | (20) | (18) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (5) |
| less working-capital build | — | 17 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 14 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 62 | (49) | (14) | — | 53 | 49 | 46 | 43 | 40 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 50 | 42 | 36 | 30 | 25 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 299, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 47 | 45 | 43 | 41 | 39 | 37 |
| Interest at 6.4% on debt | (19) | (19) | (19) | (19) | (19) | |
| Profit before tax | 26 | 24 | 22 | 20 | 18 | |
| Profit after tax | 49 | 20 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 13 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 56 | 94 | 129 | 161 | 189 | 215 |
| Working capital | 334 | 318 | 302 | 287 | 272 | 259 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,971 | 1,969 | 1,968 | 1,968 | 1,968 | 1,969 |
| Debt | 299 | 299 | 299 | 299 | 299 | 299 |
| Equity | 1,149 | 1,168 | 1,186 | 1,203 | 1,217 | 1,231 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 42 | 39 | 36 | 34 | 31 | |
| Investing (capex) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 38 | 35 | 32 | 29 | 26 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 38 | 35 | 32 | 29 | 26 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 5.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹16 | (49.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.