The note is the current scenario (Base). Download PDF renders this page on the server, fonts and colours exact; Print uses the browser.
Model Note · VRL LOGISTICS LIMITED · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
VRL LOGISTICS LIMITED Discounted cash flow · base FY26
VRL LOGISTICS LIMITED
Value per share, this model₹187
CMP 2026-09-10₹288.30
Difference(35.2)%
Growth the CMP implies12.3%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of VRL LOGISTICS LIMITED, built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
2% a year
FY26 1.9% · 5-yr CAGR 12.8%
EBITDA margin
20.2%
FY26 20.2% · 5-yr average 16.8%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
8.1% · 9.3%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 8.1% · 9.3%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
3.2% · 25.5%
12 working-capital days · effective 25.5%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 0.75
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹440 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹440 cr
Shares
17.49 crore
17.49 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
3,221
3,286
3,351
3,418
3,487
3,556
growth %
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
EBITDA
650
664
677
690
704
718
Depreciation
(261)
(266)
(271)
(277)
(282)
(288)
NOPAT
290
296
302
308
314
321
less capex
(299)
(306)
(315)
(325)
(335)
(346)
less working-capital build
—
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
Free cash flow to firm
—
255
256
258
259
261
Present value
242
219
199
180
163
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · VRL LOGISTICS LIMITED · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
1,002
PV of the terminal value (73% of EV)
2,708
Enterprise value
3,710
less net debt
(440)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
3,270
÷ 17.49 crore shares
₹187
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
194
209
228
250
279
10.5%
178
190
205
224
246
11.0%
164
174
187
202
220
11.5%
151
161
171
184
198
12.0%
141
149
158
168
180
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
