Models
XCHANGING SOLUTIONS LTDXCHANGINGIT - Software
₹124per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹124implied FY26 P/E 22.6× · EV/EBITDA 16.6×
Against CMP ₹62.50+97.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(11.2)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹100₹170
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹48₹103
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 268 |
| PV of terminal value | 868 |
| Enterprise value | 1,136 |
| less net debt | 240 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,376 |
| ÷ 11.14 crore shares | ₹124 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 127 | 135 | 144 | 155 | 170 |
| 10.50% | 119 | 125 | 133 | 142 | 153 |
| 11.00% | 112 | 117 | 124 | 131 | 140 |
| 11.50% | 106 | 110 | 116 | 122 | 129 |
| 12.00% | 100 | 104 | 109 | 114 | 120 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹62.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 106 · 123 · 143 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.65 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.51 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.50 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 174 | 174 | 185 | 203 | 222 | 243 | 266 | 292 | 319 |
| growth % | 0.1 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| EBITDA | 50 | 47 | 53 | 69 | 75 | 82 | 90 | 99 | 108 |
| margin % | 28.4 | 26.8 | 28.7 | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.8 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (1) | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| EBIT | 49 | 46 | 53 | 69 | 75 | 82 | 90 | 99 | 108 |
| less tax on EBIT | (15) | (17) | (19) | (20) | (22) | (24) | |||
| NOPAT | 53 | 58 | 64 | 70 | 76 | 84 | |||
| add depreciation | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| less capex | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| less working-capital build | — | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 42 | (12) | 47 | — | 58 | 64 | 70 | 76 | 84 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 55 | 54 | 54 | 53 | 52 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 71, dividends at 37.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 69 | 75 | 82 | 90 | 99 | 108 |
| Interest at 6.9% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 70 | 77 | 85 | 94 | 103 | |
| Profit after tax | 59 | 54 | 60 | 66 | 73 | 80 |
| Dividends | (22) | (20) | (22) | (25) | (27) | (30) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 311 | 345 | 382 | 423 | 469 | 518 |
| Working capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Net block and other assets | 211 | 211 | 211 | 211 | 211 | 211 |
| Debt | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 |
| Equity | 396 | 430 | 468 | 509 | 554 | 604 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 54 | 60 | 66 | 72 | 80 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Financing (dividends) | (20) | (22) | (25) | (27) | (30) | |
| Net change in cash | 34 | 37 | 41 | 45 | 50 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 54 | 60 | 66 | 72 | 80 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9.5% | 33.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹124 | 97.6% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.